Economic & Fiscal Modeling

Economic & Fiscal Modeling Services

We provide integrated petroleum economic evaluation and fiscal modeling to support project screening, investment decisions, field development planning, and commercial assessment across upstream oil and gas assets.

Economic & Fiscal Modeling Capabilities

Our economic and fiscal modeling services combine production, cost, price, contractual, and fiscal assumptions into transparent financial models that help operators, investors, and institutions understand project value, government take, contractor economics, and key commercial risks.

PSC Cost Recovery Modeling

Detailed economic modeling for Production Sharing Contract Cost Recovery arrangements, including revenue allocation, recoverable cost, entitlement, and government-contractor split.

  • First Tranche Petroleum (FTP) modeling
  • Cost recovery ceiling calculation
  • Unrecovered cost carry-forward
  • Contractor and government entitlement

Gross Split PSC Modeling

Economic evaluation for Gross Split PSC schemes using base split, variable components, progressive components, contractor share, and applicable fiscal assumptions.

  • Base split calculation
  • Variable and progressive adjustment
  • Contractor and government split
  • Gross Split scenario comparison

Project Economic Evaluation

Integrated project valuation using production forecasts, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, price assumptions, taxes, and fiscal terms.

  • Net Present Value (NPV)
  • Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
  • Payout and profitability analysis
  • Economic limit and project life

Cash Flow & Profitability Analysis

Development of annual and life-cycle cash flow models to evaluate revenue, expenditure, taxation, contractor cash flow, and investment return.

  • Revenue and expenditure modeling
  • CAPEX and OPEX cash flow
  • Tax and fiscal payment calculation
  • Contractor net cash flow

Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis

Evaluation of economic exposure to changes in key technical, commercial, and fiscal assumptions to identify project value drivers and downside risks.

  • Oil and gas price sensitivity
  • CAPEX and OPEX sensitivity
  • Production sensitivity
  • Base, upside, and downside scenarios

Fiscal & Decision Reporting

Clear economic reporting that translates model outputs into practical commercial insights for management, investors, and project decision makers.

  • Government take analysis
  • Contractor take analysis
  • Economic indicator summary
  • Management decision support

Illustrative Project Cash Flow

Explore an example of annual net cash flow and cumulative project cash flow across the investment and production phases of an upstream oil and gas project. This chart demonstrates the type of output produced by an economic model.

Annual & Cumulative Cash Flow

10-year example · USD million · Illustrative data

Annual net cash flow Cumulative cash flow
Illustrative annual and cumulative project cash flow Annual net cash flow in USD million over project years one to ten: minus 65, minus 38, 15, 27, 35, 38, 39, 34, 30, and 26. Cumulative cash flow: minus 65, minus 103, minus 88, minus 61, minus 26, 12, 51, 85, 115, and 141. Cumulative cash flow becomes positive in year six. USD million -120 -80 -40 +0 +40 +80 +120 +160 Year 1: annual net cash flow $-65M -65 Y1 Year 2: annual net cash flow $-38M -38 Y2 Year 3: annual net cash flow $+15M +15 Y3 Year 4: annual net cash flow $+27M +27 Y4 Year 5: annual net cash flow $+35M +35 Y5 Year 6: annual net cash flow $+38M +38 Y6 Year 7: annual net cash flow $+39M +39 Y7 Year 8: annual net cash flow $+34M +34 Y8 Year 9: annual net cash flow $+30M +30 Y9 Year 10: annual net cash flow $+26M +26 Y10 Year 1: cumulative cash flow $-65M Year 2: cumulative cash flow $-103M Year 3: cumulative cash flow $-88M Year 4: cumulative cash flow $-61M Year 5: cumulative cash flow $-26M Year 6: cumulative cash flow $+12M Year 7: cumulative cash flow $+51M Year 8: cumulative cash flow $+85M Year 9: cumulative cash flow $+115M Year 10: cumulative cash flow $+141M Project year

Swipe horizontally to view the complete chart.

Example only. All amounts are hypothetical and do not represent an actual field, PSC, asset valuation, or investment forecast. No discounting is applied to the cumulative cash flow line.
Investment-phase outflow USD 103M

Total negative cash flow in Years 1–2

Cumulative payback Year 6

First year with positive cumulative cash flow

Ending cumulative cash flow USD 141M

Undiscounted total through Year 10

Underlying illustrative chart values, USD million
Project yearAnnual net cash flowCumulative cash flow
Year 1-65-65
Year 2-38-103
Year 3+15-88
Year 4+27-61
Year 5+35-26
Year 6+38+12
Year 7+39+51
Year 8+34+85
Year 9+30+115
Year 10+26+141

How We Work

We use a structured economic modeling workflow to transform technical, commercial, and fiscal assumptions into transparent project economics and decision-ready investment insights.

1

Data & Fiscal Terms Review

We review production profiles, price assumptions, CAPEX, OPEX, contract terms, taxes, depreciation, and other fiscal parameters.

2

Economic Model Construction

We build structured cash flow and fiscal models for the applicable PSC or contractual framework with clear assumptions and calculations.

3

Scenario & Sensitivity Review

We evaluate alternative production, price, cost, and fiscal scenarios to identify economic drivers, risks, and value improvement opportunities.

4

Results & Recommendation

We deliver key economic indicators, fiscal outcomes, scenario comparisons, and practical recommendations for investment and asset decisions.

Need Economic & Fiscal Modeling Support?

Contact Java Petroleum Indonesia to discuss PSC modeling, project economics, fiscal evaluation, investment screening, sensitivity analysis, and commercial decision support.

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